"Scientists," Will Regret Talking About The Jet Stream - Jet Stream Moving South Is A Clear Sign Of Global Cooling

By showing that Arctic climate change is no longer just a problem for the polar bear, a new study may finally dispel the view that what happens in the Arctic, stays in the Arctic.

The study, by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University and Stephen Vavrus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, ties rapid Arctic climate change to high-impact, extreme weather events in the U.S. and Europe.

The study shows that by changing the temperature balance between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, rapid Arctic warming is altering the course of the jet stream, which steers weather systems from west to east around the hemisphere. The Arctic has been warming about twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, due to a combination of human emissions of greenhouse gases and unique feedbacks built into the Arctic climate system.

The jet stream, the study says, is becoming “wavier,” with steeper troughs and higher ridges. Weather systems are progressing more slowly, raising the chances for long-duration extreme events, like droughts, floods, and heat waves.

“[The] tendency for weather to hang around longer is going to favor extreme weather conditions that are related to persistent weather patterns,” said Francis, the study’s lead author.

One does not have to look hard to find an example of an extreme event that resulted from a huge, slow-moving swing in the jet stream. It was a stuck or “blocking weather pattern” – with a massive dome of high pressure parked across the eastern U.S. for more than a week – that led to the remarkable March heat wave that sent temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast soaring into the 80s. In some locations, temperatures spiked to more than 40 degrees above average for that time of year.

The strong area of high pressure shunted the jet stream far north into Canada. At one point during the heat wave, a jetliner flying at 30,000 feet could’ve hitched a ride on the jet stream from Texas straight north to Hudson Bay, Canada. In the U.S., more than 14,000 warm-weather records (record-warm daytime highs and record-warm overnight lows) were set or tied during the month of March, compared to about 700 cold records.

According to the study, Arctic climate change may increase the odds that such high-impact, blocking weather patterns will occur. The study cites examples of other patterns that led to extreme events that also may bear Arctic fingerprints, including the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave, which cost the state’s agricultural sector a staggering $7.62 billion – making it the most expensive one-year drought in that state’s history.

In addition, the study also mentions jet stream configurations that led to heavy snows in the Northeast and Europe during recent winters. Such events are also “consistent” with the study’s findings, according to the paper.

Below: Surface temperature departures from average during the March heat wave. Credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The reasons why the Arctic is heating up so quickly, a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification,” has to do with factors that are unique to the Arctic environment, involving feedbacks between sea ice, snow, water vapor, and clouds. As the area warms in response to manmade greenhouse gases, melting ice and snow allow exposed land and water to absorb more of the Sun’s heat, which melts more ice and snow, and so on. A relatively small amount of initial warming can be greatly magnified in the Far North.
The temperature contrast between the frigid Arctic and the milder mid-latitudes is what drives the powerful jet stream winds, which are so important for determining day-to-day weather conditions.

In addition to making the jet stream have more pronounced north/south swings, the reduced temperature gradient between northern and southern areas is causing the westerly component of upper-level winds to slow, especially during the fall when extra heating in the Arctic is exceptionally strong.

The westerly component of upper-level winds during the fall has weakened by about 14 percent since 1979, the study found.

Below: Path of the jet stream on March 21, 2012. Credit: weatherunderground.
A slight slowdown in the jet stream may not sound like a big deal. After all, jet stream winds have been clocked at upwards of 200 mph. But it turns out that slowing of the jet stream influences its shape and the motion of individual storm systems.

Weaker westerly winds causes the big north/south swings in the jet stream to move more slowly from west to east, making weather conditions in a given location more persistent than they used to be. “That means that whatever weather you’re experiencing now is going to tend to hang around longer because the passage of those waves is really what causes the weather to change,” Francis said.

The study contains a stark warning about future weather patterns, given projections showing that Arctic climate change is likely to accelerate in coming years. “As the Arctic sea ice cover continues to disappear and the snow cover melts ever earlier over vast regions of Eurasia and North America, it is expected that large-scale circulation patterns throughout the northern hemisphere will become increasingly influenced by Arctic amplification,” the study reports.
In other words, rapid Arctic warming is expected to exert a growing influence on the weather far beyond the Arctic Circle, for many years to come.

Andrew Freedman is a senior science writer for Climate Central, focusing on coverage of extreme weather and climate change. This piece was originally published at Climate Central and was re-printed with permission.

Do Global warming evangelicals realize scientists can't explain climate change is....

"Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change"

WHY the skepticism by scientists now???

"The climate system is not quite so simple as people thought," said Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician and author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" who estimates that moderate warming will be beneficial for crop growth and human health.

Some experts say their trust in climate science has declined because of the many uncertainties. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had to correct a 2007 report that exaggerated the pace of melt of the Himalayan glaciers and wrongly said they could all vanish by 2035.

"My own confidence in the data has gone down in the past five years," said Richard Tol, an expert in climate change and professor of economics at the University of Sussex in England.
Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown | Reuters

See how far ahead of the curve conservatives are?
I mean you "progressives" are still in the 1970s memes.. global warming,etc...
While we conservatives were trying to get you hysterical glaciers will all melt hyperbole idiots to look at the facts and not the generalities!

For example NOT one of you "global warming" evangelicals have yet answered why a simple data gathering technique .. temperature reading stations and
the base point for the "global warming" data excluded 12.5% of the land mass? By discounting this 12.5% of the total land mass the average temperature
reading stations were skewed towards higher average!

That's just one of the many reasons common sense people are very skeptical of the Chicken Little.. "waterworld advocates"!

Discounting land mass doesn't necessarily skew readings. It's the distribution that's important, not whether you have every square inch of the globe covered. Besides, with satellite technology we should be getting better data from space than from hard to reach land based stations that can only be visited, serviced and re-calibrated at irregular intervals.a

The Suns Solar Cycles

The driver (Sun Spots) behind Global Cooling OR general global climate change. This graph shows the solar cycle and future cycle predictions. Soon, the Warmist will not be able to cover up to cooling trend.

The Natural Cycles

As we have been saying, global warming and cooling is all part of a natural cycle. Little Ice Age cycles. This graph shows previous periods of warmth and cooling which the Warmist has been trying to hide for some time now!

Heavy Snowfall In China

Snow fall is blanketing several parts of northeast China’s Heilongjiang Province. The northern-most county, Mohe, is witnessing its largest snowfall in three years.

Several local roads were blocked, as the county has suffered heavy wind and snow since Friday. Bad weather also caused traffic jams and road accidents in the province’s capital, Harbin. Snow has also been falling since Friday in Heihe. The city has been hit by record snowfall since the winter.

Heavy wind and snowstorm also landed in Hulun Buir in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on Saturday. Over 200 vehicles and 600 people were trapped there.
However, by Sunday morning, they were all rescued and evacuated, and roads were back in operation.

Financial post - It's So Cold It's Getting Hot

“Ah, the weather. It’s cold as hell out there. How cold is it? It’s so cold the CBC had to rush to assure all of us that global warming is still a big, big problem. With record snow falls, record cold snaps, the return of sea ice to the north, snow in the Middle East and a deep freeze in China, any sensible person might begin to wonder and even have doubts about global-warming theory and climate change. A little skepticism might begin to creep into the public sphere and threaten to undermine public belief in global warming.”

The Warmist Attempting To Explain Away Cooling With Their B***Sh*t, Dull And Non-Scientific Data!

Hans von Storch: "Fact That The Explanation Came Afterwards...Is Just More Reason For Doubt"

The Warmist Attempting To Explain Away Cooling With Their B***Sh*t, Dull And Non-Scientific Data!

12 hrs ago from No Tricks Zone Writes:

At his klimazwiebel.blog here, Professor Hans von Storch posted an interview conducted with German Weather Service (DWD) press spokesman Gerhard Lux that had appeared earlier in the Offenbacher Post.

Arctic, public domain photo - NASA.

The interview focused on the new hypothesis put out by some scientists now claiming that the cold winters are caused by global warming, i.e. a warm Arctic is disrupting northern hemispheric weather patterns and thus causing cold winters in Europe and elsewhere. - B***Sh*t.

Here's what von Storch had to say about that hypothesis:

An interesting aspect that demonstrates the difficulty in which climate science now finds itself is that here a hypothesis was formulated (Arctic ice deficit, subsequent winter anomaly) that ends up being a possible explanation in a model experiment. But here it cannot be concluded that this is the only or even the dominant explanation. What's next is falsification of the suggestion using forthcoming observations to see whether the explanation is robust, or whether maybe indeed other explanations are more effective (e.g.: stochastic climate fluctuations). This is actually a normal process in science, and the fact that the explanation came afterwards, and was not searched and found before the occurrence of the phenomenon, is just more reason for doubt."

Other experts also doubt (or outright dismiss) the hypothesis:

1. Veteran meteorologist Klaus-Eckard Puls:

This is an embarrassing calamity for German climate alarmists, who 2 years ago began concocting a meteorologically adventurous hypothesis in an attempt to save face. [...] The climate models had predicted nothing of the sort.

Proof that winter weather in one region can be derived from the earlier summertime weather of another region has yet to be found by the generations of meteorology! If it were the case, the problems of longer-term seasonal forecasts would finally be solved. - it has at www.weatheraction.com

To this day there is no correlation whatsoever between NAO with CO2.

Our winter weather is still always made in the winter, and there is absolutely no evidence for claims to the contrary!

This completely contradicts meteorological and textbook knowledge: High pressure systems are not created above warm water - low pressure systems are."

2. Gerhard Müller-Westermeier of the German Weather Service (DWS) in January 2010 found the British claim (warming Arctic leading to reduced pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores) to be "very adventurous":

We've had mainly mild winters in which single cold months have been widely scattered, like 2009. This winter [2010] is an cold outlier that doesn't change anything in the overall picture. In general it's going to get warmer, also in the winter." - B***Sh*t.

This appears to be about an earlier variant of the theory.

3. Prof. Jochem Marotzke, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Jan 2010) on the above variant:

They got caught in a classic trap. They are only looking at one factor from the many that determine our climate. For higher air layers, at about 8 km in altitude, we expect that the atmosphere over the tropics will warm more quickly than over the Arctic. That would increase the temperature difference. Moreover the greenhouse effect will overlap the changes in air pressure difference."

Notice all the contradictions popping up already.

4. Veteran meteorologist Thomas Globig:

I've been hearing from some media that it's all because of the ice melt in the Arctic. That is when the Arctic gets warmer, here it gets colder. Naturally that's all nonsense! Back then [in 1853] there was no large summer ice melt in the Arctic. Therefore the whole thing has nothing to do with a trend. It is simply just plain weather!"

5. Andreas Friedrich, German Weather Service DWD says in the daily NZ of 8 April 2013, p.7, that there's no seasonal relationship to be found in weather:

Meteorologists are arguing over the supposed relationship between March cold and July heat. [...] A cold spring is no sign for a hot summer. There's no relationship; the weather does not have a memory. [...] That a cold March - and Match 2013 in Germany was much too cold - allows us to draw the conclusion of a hot summer is refuted by the data of the past years. [...] There's no relationship; it's all completely coincidental."

Here Friedrich is talking about spring dictating summer - reminding us that one season's weather does not dictate the weather of the following season, let alone the season after that!

6. German Weather Service (DWD) press release, 12 April 2013:

Also according to the estimation of the National Weather Service it cannot be conclusively judged whether these research results indeed will be true. The Earth's climate is a complex system of feedbacks and an exact forecast of its behavior is possible only with great difficulty.

Notice how the German Weather Service press release ignored von Storch's comments I quoted above. They just left them out.

7. Thomas Stocker, IPCC lead scientist. Weltwoche, No. 15.13, p. 36-40, on the Arctic warming/cold winter explanation:

That's the statement of one or two publications, but still no scientific consensus. Building a consensus is a tough job. At the IPCC we simply just cannot take in every single study from all the institutes worldwide. It's possible there will be a statement on this in the coming report, i.e. how the Arctic ice cover influences the statistics of high pressure regions. But for now we are still working on it."

We wish Stocker lots of luck getting a consensus on that one. (Models aren't going to cut it).

8. Even Gerstengarbe, one of the study's authors, expresses doubt!

The studies of this development are ongoing, and so at the moment no conclusions can be made on whether or not Central Europe will have the "pleasure" of cold easterly winds more frequently."

The media just forgot to mention Gerstengarbe's little disclaimer clause.

To sum up, the "warm-causes-cold" scientists remind me of the alcoholic who claims his hangovers are due to his leather allergy: Every time he wakes up with his shoes on, he has a big headache!

But the warm Arctic theory is far worse because there's a correlation only for a couple of years. We can see that the IPCC scientists are setting themselves up to look like complete asses once more.a

Our New Jet Stream!

Our New Jet Stream!

Relentless Liars: The Great Green Edifice is Crumbling

By Alan Caruba

The New Jersey chapter of the Sierra Club emailed to invite me to attend a “conversation on climate change in a post-Sandy New Jersey” intended to focus on the “impacts of fossil fuel pollution” later this month. “We need to take action to address and prevent the future impacts of climate change. Hurricane Sandy was the latest storm in an increasing trend of more extreme and severe weather.”

There isn’t “an increasing trend of more extreme weather” unless you include the current cooling cycle that has been in effect for the last 17 years, causing longer, more intense winters around the world. I doubt that the Greens can do anything about the Sun which has been in a natural cycle of reduced radiation.

As for hurricanes like Sandy, meteorologists will confirm that on average the U.S. can expect two major storm systems, categories 3 to 5, every three years. In all categories, the average is about five hurricanes that make landfall every three years. So, there is no increasing trend of more extreme weather. There is just the weather.


As far as the Sierra Club and comparable multi-million dollar environmental organizations are concerned, when they say that want to “prevent future impacts of climate change” they are either delusional, thinking that anything can be done to prevent hurricanes, blizzards, and other aspects of the weather or they are talking about imposing a carbon tax on the emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases. Congress has already rejected that.

And it’s not just the Sierra Club. The same day their invitation arrived, Friends of the Earth emailed to say “The Pacific Northwest is currently engulfed in a struggle over the dirty future of coal and coal exports in the U.S. If the biggest coal companies in the world have their way, we could have 140 million tons of coal barreling through Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon each year. That’s up to 60 trains per day in some of our neighborhoods and more than 1,000 ships a year through our sensitive waterways!” Can you say fear-mongering? Lies about coal? And a total ignorance of the value to the economy of its use and export?

The Greens regard anything that would provide energy for any reason to anyone as the enemy.

That is why “a panel of experts will discuss fossil fuel projects in our state, their impacts, and ways to reduce that pollution.” Fuel is not pollution. Fuel is what we use to heat or cool our homes, drive our vehicles, provide electricity, and conduct the business of the nation. The air and water in New Jersey is so clean we actually invite people to live here, start businesses here, and to visit as tourists to enjoy it.

“Cutting greenhouse gas emissions from dirty fuel sources is critical to protecting New Jersey” said the invitation. Carbon dioxide levels have actually been rising. More lies. As James Taylor, the Managing Editor of Environmental & Climate News, noted in March, “New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise but global temperatures are not following suit. The new data undercut assertions that atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing a global warming crisis.”

Since carbon dioxide is vital to the growth of all vegetation, from your flower garden to the abundance of crops that feed us and all livestock, reducing it is a very bad idea.

Need it be said that the local chapter is also gearing up to oppose a new natural gas pipeline for the state? Think jobs. Think lower energy costs. Now extrapolate that to the Keystone XL pipeline and to other expanded sources of energy and the benefit to the nation’s economy.

The old guard of the environmental movement is passing from the scene and the entire edifice of the global warming hoax is crumbling. Jim Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) since 1981 has announced his retirement. It was Hansen who told a congressional committee in 1988 that the Earth was heating up. That was the same year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nation Environmental Program.

Larry Bell, a columnist for Forbes magazine, recently urged the U.S. to cease funding the IPCC along with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “While the amount we give to the UNFCC and IPCC may seem like a tiny pittance in the realm of government spending largess, it’s important to realize that (the) true costs of that folly amount to countless billions in disastrous policy and regulatory impact.” Together they have received a total average of $10.25 million annually, set to increase in the FY 13 budget request to $13 million. They are a total waste of money, representing the greatest hoax of the modern era and the redistribution of our wealth.

Environmental organizations are all about controlling our lives. In March, a peer-reviewed paper by the American Institute of Biological Sciences titled “Social Norms and Global Environmental Challenges” was published in their annual journal BioScience. “Substantial numbers of people will have to alter their existing behaviors to address this new class of global environmental problems.”

Too many governments around the world, our own and particularly those in Europe, have passed all manner of laws and invested billions in “green energy” projects, only to discover they are a huge waste and that ordinary people have other ideas regarding the technologies that actually do enhance and improve their lives.

Greens are relentless liars and their lies appear daily in our print and broadcast media. Reality, though, is impacting their efforts. Facts are stubborn things.

Greens are far less interested in the environment than they are in imposing restrictions on the use of energy and the general welfare of humanity. It is pure fascism and always was.

Climate change didn't cause major 2012 drought, federal scientists say

3 hrs ago from Washington Examiner
Global warming didn't cause the historic drought that covered nearly two-thirds of the country last year, a new study by scientists from several federal agencies found.

Instead, the drought was caused by "natural variations in weather," the study concluded.
"Neither ocean states nor human-induced climate change, factors that can provide long-lead predictability, appeared to play significant roles in causing severe rainfall deficits over the major corn producing regions of central Great Plains," wrote lead author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The unpredictably dry summer was caused by a lack of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which usually carries water vapor north to the Central Plains states, the researchers said. Because the jet stream that pushes up the moisture was stuck in Canada, it failed to bring the spring rain and summer storms that water the middle of the country...

Tornadoes And Severe Storms Hit US Midwest

A severe spring storm in the US midwest has left at least one person dead and several injured.

The fatality came after a tornado hit eastern parts of Mississippi, with one resident capturing a huge twister in Noxubee County on video.

In Missouri, the National Weather Service says that the St Louis suburb of Hazelwood was hit by a tornado on Wednesday night.

A National Weather Service meteorologist said emergency crews were still assessing whether tornadoes were to blame for other damage in Missouri and neighbouring Illinois.

Missouri governor Jay Nixon has declared a state of emergency.

The storms have also brought ice and snow to much of the midwest and parts of the south east of the US.

The latest one formed a giant T on Thursday, NBC News reported, leading to snow in upstate New York, ice-covered roads in Wisconsin and heavy rain in Ohio and New Orleans.

The Things They Don't Want You To Know!

Let me explain something which politics has made you forget. The saying "Go Green" is B***Shit, plants breath in C02 and breath out 02, what's more green than that? C02 is good, its our friend. If these people would have done their research and not just look at b***sh*t climate models based of rubbish data, they'll see that in the past when the planet has entered ice age conditions precipitation has increased Dramatically.

The stuff they didn't what you to know, the cycle:

Due to solar cycles, earth orbit and variability the earths tectonic activity increases dramatically, sometimes magnetic excursions are to blame, Volcanic activity goes through the roof, along with underwater volcanic activity. Underwater volcanoes warm the ocean thus, pumping C02 into the atmosphere (that's where C02 is coming from.) C02 is the result of what's going on NOT a driver. Solar Sun Spot cycles OR lack of, causes cooling in the upper atmosphere and the jet stream moves southwards. When cooler Arctic air meets warmer oceans the result is inches and inches of snow fall. Welcome to the new ice age, "that fact that the Warmist started talking about the jet stream will be their death note." (Piers Corbyn, 2013) - weatheraction.com - Editor - Damion Hampton.


The Post:

The study, conducted by a team of researchers from the North Carolina State University's Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the Desert Research Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and ERT, Inc., reports that the extra moisture due to a warmer atmosphere dominates all other factors and leads to notable increases in the most intense precipitation rates.

The study also shows a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate

"We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events," said Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D., senior research professor at CICS-NC and lead author of the paper.

2099 may seem like a long time from now and everyone who is reading this will be gone by then, but in the meantime freak weathers events will occur with increasing frequency and will become the new normal.

Recent events have shown us that our national infrastructure is clearly unprepared for the significant weather events we are experiencing right now without adding another 30 percent of moisture on top of it.

Resident of North Dakota are currently preparing for the possibility that they may face a record flood of over 40 feet because of above-average snow pack. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Walda is poised to dump two feet of snow on South Dakota in the middle of April.